How could China's demographic crisis affect its near-term strategic posture?
Short answerIt could increase risk if Chinese leaders feel their relative strength is slipping and respond with more assertive or reactive behaviour.
NotesChina's demographic outlook is a source of concern rather than reassurance in this assessment. States that feel secure in their strength can be less easily provoked and more patient. States that believe their position is weakening may turn toward chest-beating, nationalism, and riskier decisions. Demography and perceptions of decline add a psychological dimension to assessments based on fleet size or economic output.