Would China prefer side wars in Southeast Asia or Africa rather than risk an unacceptable direct loss to the United States and its allies?
Short answerDo not assume a Western pattern of war; China would try to choose the timing and form of any conflict for itself.
NotesThe question proposes possible side wars in Southeast Asia or Africa as a way to avoid an unacceptable loss of face in a direct US confrontation. That still assumes China would define and conduct war as Western planners do. The enemy has a vote and can choose a different sequence, location, or method. If China entered a war with the United States, it would seek conditions suited to Chinese aims rather than the scenario most convenient for Western analysis. A later exchange adds another source of uncertainty: leaders may become overconfident after deciding they understand the opponent, while reactions inside the opposing government remain difficult to predict.