Taiwan capability depends on practiced doctrine as well as equipment

How serious are China and Russia about Taiwan and Ukraine, and can they act?

Both may exploit opportunity, but neither case is automatic; China's Taiwan capability especially depends on bedding in doctrine and equipment and on its assessment of whether the United States would intervene.

This April 2021 assessment links possible Russian action around Ukraine to water supplies and blocked canals, while leaving action conditional on an apparent opportunity. China's ability to act around Taiwan is judged to depend on learning how to use its new equipment and doctrine. The expected improvement is placed five to ten years ahead of the recording. The assessment also depends on whether China believes the United States would intervene. These are judgments made in April 2021 about capability and opportunity.