Q&A · 2:48:10-2:48:50

China's carrier learning curve

China is assessed as years away from a proficient carrier arm, while still capable of declaring a lower operational threshold viable.

Question

How does China's carrier force compare with British, American, and Indian carrier experience?

Short answer

It may need about a decade to become proficient if development continues, but China may consider the force viable at a much lower reliability threshold.

Notes

A carrier force can be viable before it reaches the proficiency expected of an established navy. Viability is illustrated as perhaps seven successful operations in ten, while proficiency approaches the much higher consistency expected by long-established carrier navies. China could therefore declare its carrier arm useful before it becomes proficient by British or American standards. Continued development might close that gap over roughly a decade, with India providing a more relevant regional comparison than the United States alone.