By 1937, launched or nearly operational German and Soviet carriers would materially alter the politics surrounding naval limits. Japan could cite a Soviet carrier threat in the Pacific when demanding a larger carrier force and withdrawing from treaty restrictions. That justification would give sympathetic voices a more persuasive public argument for accepting Japanese action. The counterfactual changes the political case for withdrawal even though it does not claim that carrier competition alone created Japan's objections to the treaty system.
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Soviet carriers strengthen Japan's treaty exit
Prospective Soviet and German carriers could give Japan a stronger threat narrative for demanding more carrier tonnage and leaving naval limits.