Did the absent carriers disrupt Japanese target selection at Pearl Harbor?
Short answerYes. Carriers were the preferred targets, and their absence drove the focus on battleships and improvised hunting by both waves.
NotesThe absent carriers explain the otherwise uneven-looking targeting during the two waves. American carriers stood above battleships on the preferred target list, so their absence disrupted the attack plan. Japanese aircraft continued searching and maneuvering for carriers before redirecting against available ships. That hunting displaced some formations and contributed to both heavy concentration on certain battleships and conspicuous omissions elsewhere. The pattern is therefore better read as target substitution under uncertainty than proof that Japanese naval aviation valued battleships above carriers.