Would a stronger Canadian Arctic naval force make Russia think twice?
Short answerIt would add to Russia's risk calculation and could help make the prospective cost outweigh the reward.
NotesThe answer avoids claiming that a Canadian Arctic force would single-handedly make Russia abandon an operation. Its value lies in changing the list of risks an opponent must calculate before acting. Patrols, surveillance, and the possibility of interception raise the expected cost while reducing confidence in a quick or concealed move. Deterrence emerges when accumulated risks outweigh the anticipated reward. The exchange is a compact explanation of how a modest regional force can matter without dominating the entire military balance.