Q&A ยท 4:51:44-4:53:02

Why a Bush-family counterfactual has no named replacement

Identifying a replacement political family would require detailed study of altered social and economic relationships.

Question

How would later American politics change if George H. W. Bush did not survive the Second World War and George W. Bush was never born?

Short answer

No specific replacement is identified; tracing one would require research into other people's resources, relationships and willingness to enter politics.

Notes

The hypothetical removes two members of the Bush family from later American political life. Alex Clarke discusses timing, financial resources and connections as factors in the emergence of political families. He says he has not done the social and economic research needed to name an alternative. Selecting a historical runner-up would not resolve that uncertainty, because the people involved would interact differently in the altered circumstances. The subsequent political outcome remains unspecified.