In this November 2022 assessment, Poland recognizes the danger of a cornered Russia despite political rhetoric suggesting an eagerness to fight. Russia still has nuclear weapons, even though the number of functioning systems is uncertain. Continued Ukrainian territorial gains are nevertheless favored as a way to increase pressure on Russian leadership. A resulting leadership change could bring either willingness to end the war or a decision to intensify it. The preference for further Ukrainian advances therefore includes uncertainty about the political outcome.
Notable Point · 3:11:20-3:12:42
A November 2022 assessment of Ukrainian advances and Russian escalation
A November 2022 assessment favors further Ukrainian advances while acknowledging Russian nuclear risk and uncertainty about a successor leadership.