Expecting defenders to abandon their weapons can seriously distort an invasion assessment. Russia's expectation that Ukrainians would offer little resistance is the warning example in this November 2022 comparison with Taiwan. Alex Clarke recalls teaching uniformed personnel from both sides of the Taiwan dispute and finding no expectation of an effortless victory. His assessment is that an invasion would produce hard and bitter fighting once propaganda and overconfidence were put aside.
Notable Point · 1:05:01-1:06:32
Why an invasion plan cannot assume defenders will surrender
Russia's invasion of Ukraine supplies a warning against assuming that Taiwan's defenders would simply lay down their weapons.