Q&A ยท 2:29:17-2:32:41

Can small drones make a Taiwan invasion impossible?

Small UAVs are assessed through countermeasures, casualty tolerance and the different ways armed forces approach amphibious landings.

Question

Does the spread of Group 1 UAVs make an invasion of Taiwan almost impossible?

Short answer

Small UAVs alone do not establish that invasion is impossible. Countermeasures, acceptable casualties and alternative landing methods still matter, and both sides are likely to field drones.

Notes

Small UAVs can increase the cost of an amphibious assault, but an attacker can develop countermeasures and decide to accept losses. Predictions of impossibility therefore depend partly on assumptions about acceptable casualties. Those assumptions need to account for an adversary's experience and operational preferences. American enthusiasm for a coup de main is compared with a British preference for landing away from direct contact and then moving towards the enemy, illustrated by San Carlos in the Falklands. A defence that makes one method prohibitively costly does not settle the prospects of every alternative. The attacker will probably possess UAVs too.