Q&A ยท 1:17:22-1:19:03

Would a France-Japan war leave room for the Moroccan crisis?

The counterfactual turns on Britain's alliance obligations before the April 1904 Entente Cordiale.

Question

How would the 1906 Moroccan crisis unfold if France joined Russia in a war against Japan?

Short answer

It probably would not arise in the same form: the imagined earlier war could leave France defeated by a wider coalition and Germany without a reason to pursue the historical confrontation.

Notes

In this scenario, the hypothetical French intervention precedes the Entente Cordiale of April 1904. Britain already has an agreement with Japan and responds to France's declaration of war by supporting its ally. The imagined escalation brings France into conflict with Britain, Japan, Germany, Austria, and Italy, while Russia tries to assist it. A prolonged war on those terms could cost France so much that the later Moroccan confrontation would no longer be necessary for Germany. Royal Navy support could also allow a German landing on the French coast instead of a route through Belgium. The coalition and landing are conditional alternate-history outcomes.