How would the French fleet have fared if it sailed out to fight the Royal Navy at Mers-el-Kebir in 1940?
Short answerThe Royal Navy is judged to have the advantage because it had prepared and concentrated forces for the confrontation, although the battle would still be hard.
NotesA French decision to sail out and fight at Mers-el-Kebir is expected to produce a hard battle. The Royal Navy is nevertheless judged to hold the advantage. Its preparation matters because it knew the confrontation was coming and brought the force it could assemble to secure a victory. An unexpected development is retained as the caveat to that forecast.