What if Russia supported China in the 1890s to preserve the dynasty and build an army strong enough to resist partition?
Short answerRussia's resources are doubtful, and military strength would require fiscal and political reforms that outside funding alone could not supply.
NotesThe scenario would conflict with Russia's own activities in northern China and require spare money that Russia is doubted to possess. A better-equipped army is only part of the proposed solution. Effective military forces require a reliable tax base, while creating that tax base requires reforms that the central government struggles to impose. Corruption, drug abuse and political inflexibility are identified as further obstacles. Better weapons without institutional change could simply produce better-equipped warlords. Weak provincial armies are also interpreted as a means for the central government to contain provinces and play warlords against each other. The counterfactual therefore depends on structural reform as well as foreign support.