Naval Historywith Dr. Alex

Q&A · 2:18:07-2:21:38

If the Pacific Fleet stayed on the American coast

Japan would need a different opening plan, while keeping the fleet away from Hawaii could also imply a different diplomatic background.

Attack On Pearl HarborCounterfactual HistoryImperial Japanese NavyNaval BasingPacific WarUS Navy
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Question

What if the United States had not moved the Pacific Fleet to Pearl Harbor?

Short answer

Japan could not attack the American battle fleet at Pearl Harbor, and a carrier strike against San Diego is rejected as impractical. Its alternative plan remains uncertain.

Notes

The fleet's absence rules out the same opening attack on the American battle fleet at Pearl Harbor. A carrier strike against the American coast is rejected because of distance, fuel and discovery risks; the intended base is corrected from San Francisco to San Diego. An invasion of a less strongly defended Pearl Harbor is raised as one possible alternative. A participant links the historical move to Hawaii with deterrence and escalating tensions. Removing it could imply different diplomacy as well as a different location. The participants leave Japan's precise alternative plan uncertain.