Sea-level change, ocean currents, and the limits of predictive models

How well can researchers model the effect of sea-level change on ocean currents?

There is considerable research, but predictive models remain provisional; a panel member also suggests that surface temperature may matter more to currents than average sea-level rise.

Research into sea-level change and ocean currents is substantial, but the answer treats much of it as provisional. Modelling past events is easier than predicting the whole ocean system, whose interacting variables keep expanding the problem. Submarine detection illustrates how demanding the required precision can become: a predicted surface condition would have to distinguish millimetre-scale changes associated with a submerged boat. One panel member suggests that average surface temperature may affect currents more than average sea-level rise. That suggestion remains tentative.