Q&A · 2:18:00-2:20:31

Expected naval attrition in a Cold War war

Very heavy losses were expected in the first two or three days, but further attrition could slow because the reconnaissance and attack forces would also be destroyed.

Question

How long were NATO and Warsaw Pact naval assets expected to survive in a Cold War war?

Short answer

Very heavy losses were expected in the first two or three days, but further attrition could slow because the reconnaissance and attack forces would also be destroyed.

Notes

The expected opening of a major Cold War naval conflict is described as extremely destructive, with much of both fleets lost within two or three days. A chat contribution suggests losses of 50 percent on day one, 75 percent on day two, and 80 to 90 percent by day three, but the progression after day two is questioned. Reconnaissance aircraft, missile carriers, ships, and submarines hunting the survivors would themselves suffer heavy losses. The surviving ships could therefore become harder to locate and attack, leaving those that endured the opening days in a better position to remain at sea. Nuclear depth charges and nuclear torpedoes are discussed in the context of mutual destruction. The estimates remain dependent on the scenario's conventional or nuclear escalation.