The discussion moves from failed precision-bombing promises to a wider problem with theory. A model can look convincing on paper and still break when people behave differently from its assumptions. Pure game theory does not fully explain diplomatic outcomes because leaders bring emotion, habit, and imperfect judgment into their choices. Historical analysis therefore has to compare the model with what people actually did rather than assume the most efficient solution will prevail.
Notable Point · 4:29:38-4:31:20
Why diplomatic models need human psychology
Elegant theories can fail when they treat states as perfectly rational actors and leave emotion, habit, and inefficient compromise out of the model.