Q&A ยท 1:51:28-1:54:42

Britain's defence weaknesses and the Norway analogy

The Norway comparison leads to a distinction between low perceived threat, serious underlying risks, and the history of Britain's defence debate.

Question

Is contemporary Britain in a position comparable to Norway before the Second World War?

Short answer

No; the answer distinguishes Britain's post-Cold War neglect of serious risks from Norway's much older problems.

Notes

The comparison between contemporary Britain and Norway before the Second World War is rejected. Britain's inadequate preparation is linked to assessments that found little immediate threat even though important vulnerabilities remained. The distinction is between the likelihood of an event and the seriousness of its consequences: the argument is that even a rare danger warrants preparation when its consequences are severe. Norway's earlier difficulties are described as having roots reaching back before the First World War. Britain's problems are instead associated with the post-Cold War peace dividend, with the quality of defence debate judged to have reached a low point around 2010-2012 before slowly improving. That improvement concerns the debate rather than a recovery in ship numbers.