Alex develops an argument about deterrence through the credibility of a threatened response. He distinguishes announcing a line from creating an expectation that crossing it will produce consequences even when the other side offers an explanation. Uncertainty about the form or scale of that response is another element in the argument. This is a proposed mechanism of bargaining and deterrence, with the qualification that this behaviour can go too far.
Notable Point · 1:02:01-1:04:24
Deterrence, red lines and personal reputation
The diplomacy discussion distinguishes a stated boundary from expectations about how a leader will respond to crossing it.