Why planning for a short Pacific war risks failure

Assuming that a US-China conflict would end quickly reduces the apparent need for reserves and replacement capacity. Dr. Clarke connects this planning habit to Cold War expectations that nuclear escalation would prevent a prolonged conventional war. His forecast is that mutual vulnerability could instead restrain nuclear use, particularly while neither side seeks to invade and impose regime change. Losing a naval battle does not, in that interpretation, automatically cross the nuclear threshold. Preparing for a longer conventional conflict would therefore require reserves that a short-war plan leaves out.