Would PQ 17 fare better if it scattered 500 miles later?

Would more ships from Convoy PQ 17 survive if the order to scatter came 500 miles later?

Probably more would survive because the convoy would be nearer its destination and past part of the air and submarine threat, but summer daylight and the location of the dispersal still leave the merchants exposed.

Five hundred miles represented roughly two days for a slow Arctic convoy, so moving the scatter point materially changes which threats can reach the ships. The greatest underlying problem was sending the convoy in continuous summer daylight, when aircraft could search and attack without the concealment of night. A concentrated convoy was not much easier to find than one merchantman, but scattering forced the enemy to acquire many targets separately. Submarines could attack only a limited number before losing contact, whereas aircraft and fast surface forces could range more widely, making the direction and timing of dispersal decisive.