A negotiated peace in 1918 would leave the Central Powers and their territorial arrangements partly intact, producing a different settlement across eastern Europe and the former Ottoman lands. Germany's eastern client states would remain a concern while Russia continued under communist rule. German intervention against the Bolsheviks is considered plausible because a restored White government would be easier for Germany to pressure. Germany could also offer that intervention during peace negotiations, promising to restore a Russian government able to repay debts owed to the Allies. The proposed bargain depends on an uncertain counterfactual outcome, with the territorial settlement left unresolved.
Notable Point · 1:38:18-1:39:55
A negotiated 1918 peace and German intervention in Russia
A surviving German sphere in eastern Europe could turn intervention against the Bolsheviks and repayment of Russian debts into bargaining tools.