How much worse would Pearl Harbor be if Japan had British shallow-water aerial-torpedo technology?
Short answerFar more torpedoes would reach their targets, potentially making most of the exposed battleships complete rebuilds or total losses.
NotesThe counterfactual assumes Japan can use Britain's belly-flop torpedo-release system to reduce problems with weapons diving into shallow water. The estimate is another 30 to 40 torpedo hits under that assumption. Confidence in shallow-water torpedoes could also change the attack load, with more Kate aircraft carrying torpedoes instead of high-level bombs. The resulting damage might leave the outer battleship line requiring complete reconstruction or replacement. The estimate belongs to the hypothetical attack and is not a count of torpedoes historically launched or hits historically achieved.