Q&A ยท 2:27:17-2:30:46

British shallow-water torpedo technique at Pearl Harbor

The panel estimates the damage if Japanese torpedoes at Pearl Harbor had the British system for entering shallow water without diving into the bottom.

Question

How much worse would Pearl Harbor be if Japan had British shallow-water aerial-torpedo technology?

Short answer

Far more torpedoes would reach their targets, potentially making most of the exposed battleships complete rebuilds or total losses.

Notes

The counterfactual assumes Japan can use Britain's belly-flop torpedo-release system to reduce problems with weapons diving into shallow water. The estimate is another 30 to 40 torpedo hits under that assumption. Confidence in shallow-water torpedoes could also change the attack load, with more Kate aircraft carrying torpedoes instead of high-level bombs. The resulting damage might leave the outer battleship line requiring complete reconstruction or replacement. The estimate belongs to the hypothetical attack and is not a count of torpedoes historically launched or hits historically achieved.