The later British expedition arrived with roughly 15,000 troops, far more than the first attempt, but the political and military balance had changed. Local militia, defences, and a stronger sense of identity had developed in the interval. In the counterfactual discussed here, the army might have succeeded if it had arrived earlier. Timing and the defender's ability to mobilize mattered as much as the expedition's size. Repeated incursions also damaged Spanish prestige by prompting colonists to ask what protection the imperial relationship actually provided. Once Spain itself was occupied and reduced to a French-controlled intermediary, loyalty to Spain did not automatically become loyalty to France. Failed British conquest helped accelerate the crisis of imperial authority that fed the independence struggle.
Chapter · 22:08-27:09
The second expedition arrives after local power has grown
Britain returned with roughly 15,000 troops, but stronger local defences and political identity turned an invasion that might once have succeeded into a defeat that further weakened Spanish legitimacy.