Without British intervention, the High Seas Fleet controls the Channel, prevents deployment of the British Expeditionary Force, and covers repeated waves of German troops. The sight of a German battle fleet and amphibious armada off Britain could still split the cabinet for weeks, topple Asquith's government, and elevate Lloyd George or Churchill. France's early-war command problems and the displacement of its army make a German victory likely in this branch. Naval success would then revive German fleet building and could encourage construction of an extreme British reply such as HMS Incomparable. The strategic rivalry would probably produce a later Anglo-German war before 1920, with France again drawn toward Britain because it would have few other counterweights to German power.
Chapter · 43:56-53:55
The non-intervention branch and a later Anglo-German war
If Britain initially stays out, Germany probably defeats France, credits the navy for the victory, and creates the conditions for a larger Anglo-German conflict within a few years.