If Britain selected France's M45 instead of Trident, how realistic would an upgrade to M51 be by the 2020s?
Short answerM51 would be the obvious French-path upgrade, though Britain might instead switch to Trident D5.
NotesSelecting M45 would establish a French missile procurement path for the British deterrent. M51 would then be the obvious successor by the 2020s. A subsequent move to the American Trident D5 is also left open, so the initial choice does not fix every later decision. No cost estimate or submarine redesign is offered.