Q&A · 2:22:33-2:23:41

A British Hawaii redirects American expansion elsewhere

The islands might develop like a British Caribbean colony while the United States concentrates more heavily on Central America and Spain's Caribbean possessions.

Question

What changes if Britain keeps Hawaii after the Paulet affair of 1843?

Short answer

Hawaii likely becomes a British colony while American expansion shifts toward Central America and the Spanish Caribbean.

Notes

The United States would be unlikely to fight Britain immediately for Hawaii in the mid-nineteenth century. American expansion could instead turn more strongly toward Nicaragua, perhaps reviving an alternative canal route, and toward Spanish possessions in the Caribbean. Hawaii would likely follow a British colonial path comparable to Caribbean islands. Britain itself had limited need for the islands, which is why the historical opportunity did not become a permanent annexation.