What changes if Britain keeps Hawaii after the Paulet affair of 1843?
Short answerHawaii likely becomes a British colony while American expansion shifts toward Central America and the Spanish Caribbean.
NotesThe United States would be unlikely to fight Britain immediately for Hawaii in the mid-nineteenth century. American expansion could instead turn more strongly toward Nicaragua, perhaps reviving an alternative canal route, and toward Spanish possessions in the Caribbean. Hawaii would likely follow a British colonial path comparable to Caribbean islands. Britain itself had limited need for the islands, which is why the historical opportunity did not become a permanent annexation.