Naval brinkmanship can turn on individual commanders

Would a growing Chinese fleet make dangerous political saber-rattling more likely?

Possibly, but escalation depends heavily on political and local commanders' choices, not simply the number of ships available.

A hypothetical encounter between British ships and Iranian forces in the Strait of Hormuz shows how captains can interpret the same provocation differently. A close approach may pass without incident under experienced commanders. Warning shots or a misleading report can instead turn a local encounter into a national political crisis. Fleet strength matters alongside experience, restraint, communication, and personality at each level of command.