Nitrate wealth would not guarantee a dominant Brazilian Navy

Without synthetic nitrates, how powerful might the Brazilian Navy become and when might another nitrate war occur?

A conflict might follow within about a decade, but Brazil would probably gain only a few more ships because political constraints would still limit naval development.

In the proposed scenario, another conflict over nitrate resources might follow within roughly a decade. Brazil could acquire a few more naval units without becoming dramatically more powerful at sea. Political and institutional performance would remain a stronger limit than the country's supply of people or natural resources. Continued nitrate wealth alone would not create the state capacity needed to sustain a dominant navy.