Canal mining and the risk of a wider Black Sea shipping war

Clarke identifies Russia's extensive canals as a possible future target and questions whether its reduced minesweeping organization could protect them. Mercogliano responds that both Russia and Ukraine have generally limited attacks on commercial shipping despite some attacks on merchant vessels. In his assessment, mining Russian waterways could provoke submarine attacks or reciprocal mining against traffic serving Ukraine. He compares that danger with the Iran-Iraq tanker war and Germany's unrestricted submarine warfare in 1917. His proposed threshold is economic desperation: either side could abandon restraint if it believed wider attacks were necessary to sustain its war.