Did the Black Buck raids materially change the Falklands War?

Were the Black Buck raids worth their cost, and did the hit on Stanley's runway materially help win the Falklands War?

Psychological pressure and diverted Argentine fighters were the strongest benefits identified; continued Hercules flights undermine the claim that runway damage severed the air bridge.

Black Buck's main benefits are assessed as psychological pressure and the diversion of Argentine fighters northward. Hercules transports continued to reach Stanley at night, so the raid did not sever the air bridge. The extent of the runway damage remains uncertain in this assessment: it was either not hit as claimed or repaired rapidly enough for transport flights to continue. A runway extension suitable for fighters is also considered unlikely once the blockade was in place. The distinction is therefore between a useful psychological and diversionary effect and the stronger claim that physical damage to the airfield helped decide the war.