A carrier attack would likely require many missiles rather than a single weapon. Early-warning systems would detect those ballistic launches quickly, but leaders might not know for several minutes whether they targeted ships, regional bases, or the homeland. Waiting for trajectory clarification risks losing the chance to retaliate against a real first strike. The panel therefore treats conventional ballistic weapons and dual-use systems as a severe command-and-control problem in any war between nuclear powers.
Notable Point · 1:37:07-1:42:33
Anti-ship ballistic missiles create an escalation trap
A mass anti-ship ballistic-missile launch can resemble a nuclear first strike long enough to force dangerous decisions before trajectories become clear.