DF-21 missiles alone do not determine Chinese naval dominance, although they can impose costs by forcing the United States to devote money and attention to countermeasures. Their ballistic launch profile creates a different problem because an opponent may not immediately know whether a missile is aimed at a carrier, Guam, or another target. This ambiguity could accelerate nuclear decision-making during a crisis, and the same caution applies to wartime ballistic launches generally. Coordinated waves of cruise missiles provide a potent conventional attack without making the anti-ship ballistic missile the sole measure of Chinese power. This is a strategic assessment and escalation warning rather than a claim that any particular response is automatic.
Notable Point · 2:51:57-2:56:21
Ballistic-missile ambiguity in a Pacific war
China's anti-ship ballistic missiles create costly defensive dilemmas and escalation risk, while massed cruise missiles may be the more usable conventional threat.