Germany probably would not attempt the operation. Dug-in 12-inch batteries would require the Regia Marina and a truly joint assault. Kurt Student would have to combine German airborne and mountain forces with Italian troops and battleships, precisely the kind of German-Italian coordination that frustrated Axis plans against Malta. Committing battleships after Taranto and Cape Matapan would make the naval risk especially conspicuous. Concentrating ships, troops, and transports would take time and divert resources from Barbarossa. Port activity, reconnaissance, signal traffic, and transport movements would reveal the operation as it assembled. The likely timetable slips from 20 May into June, giving the defenders still more time to prepare. Fortification therefore deters partly by forcing the attacker to gather a larger, slower, and noisier force that sacrifices surprise.
Chapter · 39:30-43:58
Axis coordination may prevent an invasion
A fortified Crete demands Italian battleships, more troops, more preparation, and a conspicuous delay into June 1941.