The counterfactual begins with Germany refusing to invade Belgium or the Netherlands in 1914. Switzerland, the French forts, and the German army's preference for offensive action eliminate the most obvious land alternatives. That leaves either drawing the French army into Germany or attempting an amphibious operation around Belgium, even though the maritime option is itself poor and risky. The scenario also depends on Kaiser Wilhelm II believing that assurances could persuade Britain the amphibious force was aimed only at France, illustrating how naval operations, neutrality, and political credibility interact in grand strategy.
Notable Point · 50:06-51:37
Avoiding Belgium leaves an amphibious alternative
A First World War counterfactual shows why refusing to invade Belgium leaves Germany with either an alien defensive posture or an amphibious movement around the neutral state.