Why coercive powers can mistake restraint for weakness

Why do dictatorships and bullies so often underestimate their opponents?

Actors who speak primarily through force can misread restraint or civility as weakness and assume their own violence will overwhelm an opponent.

A problem of strategic perception rather than equipment. An actor accustomed to coercion may treat a less belligerent style as evidence that the other side lacks resolve. That belief encourages plans built on rapid collapse and can make resistance surprising only because it was discounted at the start. The point connects the evening's comparisons of Argentine expectations in 1982 and Russian expectations in 2022.