AUKUS production schedules and Australia's Collins gap

The forecast treats Britain, Australia, and the United States as entering related submarine construction phases at different times. Britain follows the Dreadnought programme, Australia begins when its infrastructure is ready, and the American transition is placed after later Virginia-class blocks. Repeated changes to the Virginia design are compared with modifying a car platform until its underlying structure can accommodate no further improvements. The American programme is tentatively placed about a decade behind the British start. Discussion of increasing Britain's SSN force from seven to ten or twelve boats raises the possibility of two batches of six. Later British boats could then resemble a different partner's generation, although the differences might remain small. Australia's transition became harder because Collins construction stopped instead of maintaining the construction infrastructure. The original Collins requirement drew on a surviving tradition of long-range conventional submarines. A modern replacement seeking similar operating reach to an SSN is described as an increasingly unusual requirement, making a bespoke design expensive.