What circumstances could have caused the United States to lose the Spanish-American War?
Short answerAn attack on the Spanish homeland could have drawn Britain into a European intervention, confronting the American fleet with a navy it was too weak to defeat in 1898.
NotesThe proposed route to American defeat begins with Washington sending a fleet against the Spanish coast. Germany was trying to organize European resistance, and an attack on Spain itself could have given that effort enough support to succeed. Britain would then face a choice between intervening and letting Germany lead a continental coalition at sea. British intervention would confront an American navy far weaker than the Royal Navy. The Mediterranean Fleet was commanded by Sir John Hopkins, an enthusiastic advocate of gunnery and salvo firing. The danger remained hypothetical because the Americans avoided that escalation and Britain wanted to stay out unless compelled to act.