Recent assertions that Ukrainians would not resist Russia, or that others would not fight China, resemble older claims by Napoleon, Kaiser Wilhelm II, and Hitler that Britain lacked the stomach for war. Propaganda and cultural stereotypes are poor evidence for forecasting whether a population will fight. History offers many cases in which confident assumptions of collapse failed.
Notable Point · 1:06:20-1:08:17
Why assuming an opponent will not fight is dangerous
Claims that a society lacks the will to resist repeat a strategic mistake visible from Napoleonic and German assessments of Britain to predictions about Ukraine and a future Taiwan conflict.