Many wars look pointless when examined closely, yet that can still support an argument for preparedness. A government can control its own choices without controlling the judgment, ambitions, or mistakes of every state connected to its interests. Armed forces are compared to insurance carried by a careful driver who may still be struck by someone reckless. The practical lesson is that force structure should be tested against plausible external miscalculation as well as the home government's desire to stay at peace.
Notable Point · 2:03:03-2:05:17
Armed forces as insurance against another government's mistake
A road-safety analogy argues that defense planning must account for the least prudent outside actor, regardless of a state's own intention to avoid war.