Would no Suez or Panama Canal drive more effort into the Northwest and Northeast Passages?
Short answerYes, but the routes remain constrained by ice and difficult navigation; they cannot simply substitute for a canal system.
NotesWithout Suez and Panama, governments and shipping companies would have a stronger incentive to investigate the Northwest and Northeast passages. The answer still rejects the idea that demand alone can make those routes reliable. Seasonal ice, narrow navigable windows, and the need for supporting infrastructure constrain commercial use. Icebreakers and ice-strengthened hulls can create or preserve a passage, but they add cost and cannot remove the geography. Northern routes become more attractive in the counterfactual while remaining dependent on environmental conditions.