Germany initially tried to move the dispute to the Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague. A British representative also sent Castro seventeen notes about London's concerns and received no reply. Roosevelt had publicly stated in 1901 that he would not protect a South American country that failed to meet its obligations to a European power. Castro nevertheless treated the Monroe Doctrine as if it overrode those warnings. With about fifteen million dollars in disputed debt, his refusal to negotiate turned a financial dispute into a foreseeable military crisis.
Notable Point · 27:49-29:12
Arbitration offers and ignored warnings expose Castro's miscalculation
Germany's arbitration proposal, seventeen unanswered British notes, and Roosevelt's public position all undercut Castro's expectation of American rescue.