The escalation danger of anti-ship ballistic missiles

How serious is the threat from anti-ship ballistic missiles?

They are potent threats, but launch ambiguity makes their use dangerously escalatory and potentially nuclear.

Several detected ballistic launches would present a president with an immediate decision. Until the missiles descend, defenders may not know whether they target a carrier group, cities, or nuclear forces. Waiting risks absorbing a devastating first strike, while responding early risks turning a conventional naval attack into nuclear war. Anti-ship ballistic missiles are useful for coercion and for forcing expensive defenses, but their actual employment could open an escalation path far beyond the ships being targeted.