The targeting and escalation problem of anti-ship ballistic missiles

Could conventional anti-ship ballistic missiles give a non-nuclear power a practical deterrent?

Possibly in confined waters, but open-ocean targeting, salvo size, and escalation ambiguity sharply limit their utility.

A non-nuclear state could gain some deterrent value, especially against a carrier group confined in a narrow sea. Conventional warheads make accuracy more demanding because a near miss does not compensate for uncertain targeting in the way a nuclear blast might. In open ocean, the attacker may need a large salvo to cover the carrier group's possible positions. That solution creates both a severe cost problem and dangerous escalation ambiguity for leaders who see numerous ballistic missiles launch before they know the intended target or warhead.