Anglo-Japanese Alliance and escalation risk

An early-twentieth-century war between the United States and Japan was a serious possibility even though Britain did not expect war with America or Italy as part of the qualitative battleship race. Under the Anglo-Japanese Alliance, each partner could remain outside a one-on-one conflict but had to assist if another power joined against its ally. Britain might prefer to trade with both sides and stay out of a bilateral contest, yet a wider coalition could pull it in. Battleship competition among states at peace still shaped the risks surrounding a future war.