Q&A · 1:36:28-1:46:16

An early communist China and the world wars

The question produces different counterfactuals in 1912 and 1928, depending on the existence of Soviet Russia and the kind of communist movement imagined in China.

Question

What if China became communist during the nationalist revolution?

Short answer

A 1912 version could change foreign intervention, the First World War and Russia's revolution. A 1928 version gives Japan an anti-communist pretext for an earlier invasion.

Notes

The date is unclear, so the discussion considers both the 1912 replacement of imperial rule and the 1928 change of government. A 1912 communist state could not simply be assumed to follow the later Marxist-Leninist or Maoist model. Foreign intervention by powers such as Russia, Germany and Japan could redirect international attention and change the events leading to the First World War. In the 1928 version, Japan could use anti-communism to justify an earlier invasion, while other powers might tolerate its actions more readily. British concern for Hong Kong and Weihaiwei is offered as one reason for such tolerance. An earlier Chinese example could also influence Russia's revolutionary factions, with a less hardline outcome suggested as one possibility. Germany's willingness to return Lenin to Russia would itself have to be reconsidered if it had already seen a communist takeover in China. These are alternative possibilities whose outcomes depend on the timing and ideology chosen for the scenario.