Successful amphibious operations create a misleading sample. Commanders normally launch only after deciding that the objective justifies the force, preparation, and expected casualties; plans that fail that test disappear from the battle narrative. Coastal defences can therefore work by making an operation unaffordable or strategically unnecessary without ever firing. Evaluating them requires counting the plans they redirect, delay, or cancel, as well as the beaches an enemy eventually captures.
Notable Point · 50:38-51:23
Canceled invasions make coastal defenses look less effective
The historical record overrepresents landings judged likely to work, while plans deterred or canceled by cost leave no battle to remember.