What makes an American retreat from global commitments plausible in this counterfactual?
Short answerThe United States combines a recurring isolationist tradition with enough space and strategic depth to defend itself while avoiding alliances.
NotesA persistent isolationist current in American politics makes this counterfactual less dependent on an implausible national transformation. The United States has enough geographic space and strategic depth to defend itself while reducing foreign commitments. It can remain armed, neutral, and unaligned while trying to ignore conflicts beyond its immediate interests. Such a retreat is structurally easier than it would be for a smaller state dependent on an exposed overseas position.