Q&A · 3:58:10-4:00:25

Why preventing the American Civil War requires a cause

The world-war consequences of avoiding the American Civil War depend first on whether slavery ended peacefully or expanded with Northern acceptance.

Question

If the American Civil War never happened, how would that affect World War I and World War II in the Pacific?

Short answer

It depends on why the war vanished: peaceful abolition and continued slavery create completely different industrial, diplomatic, and imperial paths.

Notes

Peaceful abolition and a settlement accepting more slave states produce different versions of the counterfactual United States. The panel expects continued slavery to damage relations with Canada and other countries. It also disputes how far industrial growth would be prevented: one contribution stresses the loss of wartime and Reconstruction investment, while another expects development to continue on a different timetable. Changes to transport and industry would affect both North and South. Britain and India enter the discussion because the interruption of American cotton exports encouraged Indian production. The consequences for the world wars remain undefined until the scenario explains why the Civil War never happens.